Today's newsletter is by Jared Blikre, a reporter focused on the markets on Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @SPYJared. Read this and more market news on the go with Yahoo Finance App.
Rise and shine deal-hunters!
For those who slept off their tryptophan hangovers and are not running headlong into a phalanx of Black Friday deals just yet, a half-day of potential "deals" awaits in the stock market.
Yes, volume is expected to be low, and volatility has already trailed off the year's elevated levels heading into the holiday.
But the truncated Black Friday session has presented some opportunities over the years to those investors willing to sidle up to the markets table.
SAN JOSE, CA - November 26: Black Friday shoppers are seen in the reflection of a store window as they walk through the Westfield Oakridge mall in San Jose, Calif., on Friday, Nov. 26, 2021. (Photo by Dai Sugano/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty Images)
Only last year, the post-Thanksgiving session witnessed the Dow suffering its worst day of the year, as a new COVID variant dubbed omicron first entered the scene. WTI crude oil crashed 13% that Friday — its biggest drop since trading negative in the early days of the pandemic.
If we dial back the markets clock to Thanksgiving 2009, as the world was still reeling from the Global Financial Crisis, we find plenty more volatility to go around.
Early Black Friday morning in 2009, risk markets were selling off hard, as a deal to save Dubai's sovereign debt hung in the balance. U.S. stock futures were down 2% as Europe began its trading day. But an eleventh-hour deal roused investors' risk appetite. The day closed green and the lows wouldn't be revisited for over two months.
And back in 2014, a surprise deal from OPEC to keep oil production levels unchanged sent oil prices towards multi-year lows over the Thanksgiving and Black Friday trading sessions.
To be fair, outsized price movement on these Fridays is the outlier. The norm is a low-volume, low-range day that's part of a larger, bullish seasonality leading into February.
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